Monday, July 23, 2012

Dividend Delusions

Just a short post to highlight the frothy premiums currently being bestowed upon the 'slow and steady' blue-chip dividend stocks at the moment. As central banks have successfully reduced yields on government and high grade corporate bonds to levels that will not sustain institutional funding or retirement income goals, investors of all stripes have flocked to dividend funds in their chase for yield.

Unfortunately, in the stampede for yield, investors in dividend stocks are overlooking the single most critical fact: valuations for the 'bluest of blue chip' dividend stocks, as measured by the Dow Jones Select Dividend Index, are now higher in aggregate than valuations for the broader market.

This must represent a profound source of consternation for traditional value investors, who must be enormously frustrated that their value bias can no longer be reconciled with a dividend focus.

Chart 1. Price to Book Discount of Dow Jones Select Dividend Index vs. Russell 1000
Source: Bloomberg

Chart 2. Price to Earnings Discount of Dow Jones Select Dividend Index vs. Russell 1000
Source: Bloomberg


You can see that based on both PE ratio and PB ratio that dividend stocks are valued at or near a premium to the broader stock market. Further, looking back to 2003 (the inception of the dividend index), dividend stocks have rarely been more expensive relative to the broader market.

Readers of this blog won't be surprised to learn that we would advocate for investors to replace their thirst for yield with a thirst for low volatility. The following charts make the case.

Chart 3. Low volatility stocks outperform the market in absolute and relative terms
 Source: Deutsche Bank

Chart 4. Low volatility stocks are substantially cheaper than dividend stocks
Source: Yahoo finance

Chart 5. When yields are adjusted for risk, rational investors would be agnostic about investing in low volatility versus high dividend stocks, but would prefer either to the market index
Source: Yahoo finance

Chart 6. Last but not least, low volatility stocks in aggregate are under-owned - in stark contrast to the extremely over-owned dividend sectors.
Source: Deutsche Bank